GEAB N°61: Global Systemic Crisis – 2012: The year of the world’s great geopolitical swing

According to LEAP/E2020, 2012 will in fact be the year of the world’s great geopolitical swing: a phenomenon which will without any doubt be the bearer of serious difficulties for most of the planet but which will also allow the emergence of geopolitical conditions favourable to an improvement of the situation in the years to come. Contrary to the previous years, 2012 will not be a “wasted” year, stuck in the “world before the crisis”, through lack of audacity, initiative and imagination on the part of the world’s leaders and because of people’s great passivity since the beginning of the crisis.

We had qualified 2011 as the “ruthless year” because it was going to shatter the illusions of all those who thought that the crisis was under control and that they were going to be able to go back to their “private deals” as in the past. And 2011 was ruthless for many political leaders, the financial sector, investors, Western debts, world growth, the US economy and for the absence of Euroland governance. Those who believed themselves untouchable or a permanent fixture suddenly discovered that the crisis saved nothing or no-one. This trend will, of course, continue in 2012 because the crisis does not respect the Gregorian calendar either. The last “untouchables” will experience it: the United States, the United Kingdom, the Dollar, T-Bonds, Russian and Chinese leaders,… (1) But 2012 will also see, especially in the second half, the forces and players assert themselves who in 2013 and the following years will enable the beginning of the rebuilding a new international system, reflecting the expectations and power struggles of the XXIst century and no longer those of the middle of the XXth century. Therein, 2012 will well be the year of the great swing between yesterday’s and tomorrow’s world. A year of transition, it will mix the worst (2) and the best. But in so doing, for our team, it nevertheless constitutes the first constructive year since 2006 …
The great swing of 2012 is also that of the people. Because 2012 will be also the year of people’s anger. (Did Nigeria spark it off? – Aed). It’s the year when the people will massively enter on the global systemic crisis’ stage. 2011 has been a “warm-up lap” where the pioneers tested methods and strategies. In 2012, the people will assert themselves as the forces at the origin of the major swings which will mark this turning point. They will do it pro-actively because they will create the conditions of decisive political changes via elections (as it will be the case in France with the ousting of Nicolas Sarkozy (9)) or via mass demonstrations (the United States, the Arab world, the United Kingdom and Russia). And they will also do it more passively by generating fear in their leaders, obliging the latter to take a “pre-emptive” attitude to avoid a major political shock (as it will be the case in China (10) or in several European countries). In both cases, whatever the elite of the countries concerned think, it’s a constructive phenomenon because nothing important or lasting can emerge from this crisis if the people do not involve themselves (11).

The great swing of 2012 is also the accelerated collapse of the Western banks and financial institutions’ power which is a reality described in this issue, contrary to the current populist chatter which forgets that the starry sky that we look at is an image of a long-gone reality. The crisis is such a speeding-up of history that many have not yet understood that the power of the banks which they worry about is that which they had before 2008…


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